Forecasting

The S&P 500 Index closed at new record highs on Tuesday, August 18, 2020 and is now up around 5% for the year. Even with the economy re-opening, I don’t think many believed that the market would recover this quickly, only five months from the market low. This is especially true if we go back to mid-March when we entered correction territory in only 16 days, an event without historical precedent. It felt as if things could get to 2008/09 levels and become a 40% or even 50% decline.

There were numerous forecasts from market analysts that predicted the next Great Depression was coming. Conversely, there were some who believed a ‘U’ or ‘V’-shaped recovery could happen. No one really knew who would be correct then and no one knows with any more certainty what will transpire in the rest of 2020.

Philip Tetlock, author of the book Super Forecasting, summarized forecasting after his analysis of expert predictions as “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”

One of the forecasters is bound to get it right, but it is impossible to determine who that is.  

We are not playing the forecasting game. We are sticking to each client’s plan and suggesting clients to maintain their current mix of investments, or asset allocation as it is commonly known. That mix is considered to be ‘all weather.’ Regardless of what happens next, the portfolio is poised to be resilient and biased toward long-term growth. We believe that if there has not been a change in your circumstances, why change the plan?

We also strongly believe that all successful investing is essentially goal-focused and planning-driven. All failed investing is market-focused and event-driven.